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Overvalued and underperforming: it's time to ditch Tesla

Elon Musk's electric car maker needs everything to go perfectly to justify its massive valuation
Overvalued and underperforming: it's time to ditch TeslaPublished on January 16, 2025

Four years ago, shares in GameStop (US:GME) took off when the Reddit community decided it wanted to defy the hedge funds that had shorted the loss-making video games retailer. The share price has since come down from its 2021 peak, but even today – despite continuing negative free cash flow – shares are 30 times higher than they were in 2019. In some cases, the market really can stay irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.

Tip style
Sell
Risk rating
High
Timescale
Long Term
Bull points
  • Strong operating margins
  • Large potential addressable market
  • Loyal retail shareholder base
Bear points
  • Recent car volumes have disappointed
  • Very highly valued
  • Falling earnings forecasts
  • Political risk

This is why it is so hard to bet against electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (US:TSLA). On almost every important metric, it is massively overvalued. Tesla trades on a forward price/earnings ratio of 121, compared with 14 for rival Chinese EV maker BYD (HK:1211) and six for Ford Motor Company (US:F). In terms of price to free cash flow, Tesla sits on a multiple of 285 for 2025, while BYD and Ford trade on 22 and five, respectively. And yet Tesla's loyal investor base keeps sending the shares higher.

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