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Economics

Warren Buffett, Elon Musk and the St Petersburg Paradox

Warren Buffett, Elon Musk and the St Petersburg Paradox
Published on November 20, 2024
Warren Buffett, Elon Musk and the St Petersburg Paradox

Elon Musk makes a lot of swashbuckling statements, but one in particular stood out last month. During Tesla's (US:TSLA) third-quarter earnings call, he said the company is focused on building the future of energy, transport, robotics and AI at a time when others are managing near-term trends. As a result, he predicted that “Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world and probably by a long shot”. The share price rallied 12 per cent after the announcement. 

Since the US election result, the shares have surged further still. If Musk is right, $340 for a stake in the world’s soon-to-be most valuable company looks like a steal. But do we underestimate the value of growth stocks? The St Petersburg Paradox suggests that we don’t behave rationally when the potential pay-offs are huge.

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