Join our community of smart investors

The outlook for US stocks is getting harder to predict

Will the S&P 500 keep hitting record highs or will capex and concentration risks come back to bite investors?
The outlook for US stocks is getting harder to predictPublished on December 19, 2024

In some ways, little changed in the US over the past year. The economy continued to streak ahead of other developed nations and, despite warnings of too much concentration amongst the largest tech stocks, the S&P 500 kept hitting record highs.

Since the Covid-19 pandemic, the US economy has got into the habit of defying expectations. Facing supply shocks, increasing inflation and a subsequent rise in interest rates, economists consistently warned about the threat of recession. In the event, 2024 was another exceptional year for the US, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an annualised rate of 2.8 per cent as of the third quarter.

However, the election victory for Donald Trump in November threatens to change all of this, given the extent of the bold nationalist and protectionist policies made by the president-elect on the campaign trail.

This is subscriber only content
Start your trial to keep reading
PRINT AND DIGITAL trial

Get 12 weeks for £12
  • Essential access to the website and app
  • Magazine delivered every week
  • Investment ideas, tools and analysis
Already a subscriber? Sign in